Author(s): Ileana-Cinziana SURDU
Publication name: Romanian Intelligence Studies Review
Publisher name: Mihai Viteazul National Intelligence Academy
Publication type: Journal article
Publication date: December 31, 2020
Pagination:
Issue/ Volume: 24/2020
DOI:
Abstract
Forecasting methods are used in different areas, different contexts, but with the
same final purpose: evaluating possible futures. Alternative scenarios are an efficient
tool of identifying alternative futures, based on past and present actions and contexts.
Since gaining popularity, in the 1950s, the scenario method has been constantly
improved and has evolved into different typologies. The qualitative approach of the
alternative scenarios method allows for insightful analysis and debate on the topic
addressed, based on the projection factors that describe the situation under study. The
scenario method can be adapted to different types of situations and to different time-
frames. The article discusses various scenario designs and reviews their primary
characteristics, sending the reader to further information. Without representing a
formal institutional method of analysis, alternative scenarios can successfully be used in
processes that target risk assessments and mitigations, tackling vulnerabilities,
identifying gaps and needs, anticipating attacks and possible associated tools, but also
the elaboration of strategies on a long, medium and short-term.
This paper proposes a class exercise based on the elaboration of alternative
scenarios. As support for both the lecturer, who will act as the moderator, and the
students, who will be the participants of the exercise, the article discusses the research
method proposed through definitions, characteristics and classifications, advantages
and disadvantages, methods of identification and analysis of projection factors, and also
the utility of the method for the intelligence and security studies.
Keywords: alternative scenarios, multiple scenarios, projection factors, key-
drivers, security and intelligence studies.
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