Author: Ana MOIAN
Publication name: Romanian Intelligence Studies Review
Publisher name: Mihai Viteazul National Intelligence Academy
Publication type: Journal article
Publication date: December 31, 2025
Pagination:
Issue/ Volume: 2 (34)/2025
DOI:
Abstract:
Despite the importance of the Black Sea, a region characterised by acts of
aggression, competition for resources, expansionism, and political instability, NATO does
not have an official security strategy for it, even after witnessing three years of war in
Ukraine. Developments of early 2025 make it even more unclear if the allies are able to
come to common grounds regarding the instruments of power that will be used to defend
this area. Based on the evolutions witnessed prior to negotiations for peace in Ukraine,
this paper examines the likelihood that NATO will take this action, emphasising the
contributions of its riparian states, Türkiye, Bulgaria, and Romania. Using a theoretical
framework established by Dr. Harry R. Yarger for understanding strategy, but extrapolating
his insights from national level to an alliance level, this paper attempts to extract the
advantages, difficulties, and primary areas of focus for developing this strategy by
providing an analysis of scholarly literature, official documents, and primarily perspectives
from these three nations. Important conclusions include the necessity of unifying different
national priorities to improve responses to Russian aggression, the need for alternative
measures to assure stronger deterrence, and the necessity of strengthening regional
cooperation to assist the endeavour.
Keywords: NATO; Black Sea; strategy security; Russia.
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