Author(s): Giliam DE VALK
Publication name: Romanian Intelligence Studies Review
Publisher name: Mihai Viteazul National Intelligence Academy
Publication type: Journal article
Publication date: June 30, 2019
Pagination:
Issue/ Volume: 21/2019
DOI:
Abstract
Case study is the most common method in intelligence research. Intelligence
analysis takes place in a context of denial and deception by opponents that also
constantly innovate themselves. In that context, the analyst does not want to miss
threats.
Can a research design on threats be structured such that less relevant
relationships are missed? In methodological terms: to reduce the value of the β. A tool is
presented in which different types of unknowns are distinguished, in which either the
data or the technique to retrieve those data are unknown. In this tool – the Rumsfeld
Matrix – both the quantitative and qualitative approach is integrated. Also, all three
types of logic – abduction, deduction, and induction – can be applied. Thus, the change of
missing relevant relationships on threats is reduced.
Next, a model is presented to assess what is covered in a case study in terms of
logic. It is tool to organize and evaluate your case research. Through this Standard Logic
Model it can be visualized what the current coverage of a case is, and what the desired
state would look like. It is also assessed what techniques will cover what part of a case. It
integrates three aspects. Firstly, all three forms of logic are included. Secondly, it
combines both the qualitative and quantitative approach. Thirdly, analysis by humans
and analysis by machines is combined. It will lead to an enhanced way of working – that
of augmented analysis in which humans and machines are paired in their analytic effort.
Keywords: β, unknown, tooling, Rumsfeld Matrix, logic.
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