Author(s): Patrick RUS
Publication name: Romanian Intelligence Studies Review
Publisher name: Mihai Viteazul National Intelligence Academy
Publication type: Journal article
Publication date: December 31, 2018
Pagination:
Issue/ Volume: 19-20/2018
DOI:
Abstract
Intelligence analysts are confronted always with gaps in the intelligence cycle
that limit their understanding, explanation and prediction of phenomena that are
outside their subjective and bounded rationality knowledge horizon. When they reach
the inflection point in intelligence analysis, they are either inclined to make guesses or
estimates that are based on their experiences and cognitive biases. Going far ahead the
inflection point, there is the highest level of uncertainty that goes far beyond our
capability to understand, explain and predict the phenomena. The highest level of
uncertainty can be traced back to concepts such as Thucydides’ tyche or Rumsfeld’s
unknown unknowns. How can we approach and assess this level of uncertainty? Our
position paper argues that this level of uncertainty represents the knowledge/ignorance
imbalance in our brains. In order to explore the unknown unknowns, we need to
determine this imbalance by approaching the processes and mechanisms that generate
ignorance in the Leibnizian and Xenopolian manner. This line of inquiry is convergent
with the exploration concept that means “action at a distance”. Exploration establishes
the (mediating) link between intelligence and immediate action on a tight timeline.
Historically, in the Roman Empire, exploratores operated at a geographically and
temporally distance to detect, check, monitor, prevent, and react in case of unknown
unknowns. “Back to the future”, intelligence analysts have to be like exploratores and to
look at all the possible indications far ahead their immediate knowledge horizon.
Keywords: cognitive biases, exploration; intelligence analysts, knowledge/
ignorance imbalance; unknown unknowns.
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