Author(s): Mihail PĂDURARU
Publication name: Romanian Intelligence Studies Review
Publisher name: Mihai Viteazul National Intelligence Academy
Publication type: Journal article
Publication date: June 30, 2021
Pagination:
Issue/ Volume: 25/2021
DOI:
Abstract:
On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization – China Country Office
was informed about pneumonia cases of unknown aetiology (unknown cause) detected
in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China (WHO, 2020). That was the beginning of a new
health crisis, with subsequent global effects.
This crisis exceeds the analytical capacity of health experts and finds society
completely unprepared to put in place interdisciplinary teams capable of making
complex analyses or epidemiological models with successful prognosis, applicable to
concrete realities. At the same time, significant changes are expected, but many pieces of
the puzzle are missing, which is why, it is difficult to map out projections outside of
subjective assertions, generalities or wish list elements.
In a time of great uncertainty, following the underlined aspects, which would be
the most appropriate reaction of the analysis and prediction community? Which are the
changes generated by the COVID-19 pandemic and which are the challenges that
humanity will have to adapt to? How predictable are these changes and how durable
will they be?
Keywords: Health Crisis, Uncertainty, Risk, Scenario Analysis, New World Order.
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