Author(s): Davide BARBIERI, Stefania PALADINI
Publication name: Romanian Intelligence Studies Review
Publisher name: Mihai Viteazul National Intelligence Academy
Publication type: Journal article
Publication date: December 31, 2017
Pagination:
Issue/ Volume: 17-18/2017
DOI:
Abstract
Easy-to-use and commonly available software tools may significantly
improve the way intelligence analysts do their job. This is especially true when
quantitative assessments – which involve statistical and mathematical
calculations – are required by decision makers. The possibility to chart and
display results in an intuitive way will facilitate reporting and communication,
minimizing ambiguities and the necessary narrative to make sense of collected
information. This paper shows how to efficiently leverage MS Excel to produce
elegant and accurate intelligence reports for early-warning tasks. As an
example, information collected from social media is used in order to update
coherently the estimates of the risk of a war between the USA and North Korea.
Keywords: Electronic spreadsheets, social media, quantitative risk
assessment, Bayesian inference.
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