Author(s): Adrian-Vasile POPA
Publication name: Romanian Intelligence Studies Review
Publisher name: Mihai Viteazul National Intelligence Academy
Publication type: Journal article
Publication date: December 31, 2018
Pagination:
Issue/ Volume: 19-20/2018
DOI:
Abstract
The de facto annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and its subsequent
militarization with Russian anti-access / area denial capabilities represent a game
changer for the security environment in the Wider Black Sea Region. By claiming large
parts not just of Crimea’s, but also of Ukraine’s continental shelf and Exclusive Economic
Zone, Russia may significantly change the balance of power in the region. Facing the
probability of sharing volatile frontiers with Russia, the riparian states have responded
through various initiatives that would allow the strengthening of their military
positions. Such an attempt is the Romanian proposal for a Black Sea naval cooperation
with Turkey and Bulgaria under the NATO umbrella. This initiative is at a standstill as of
2018 despite NATO launched a multinational Black Sea force headquartered in Craiova
(Romania) last year that is expected to include additional sea assets to those already
existent, namely sporadic NATO naval patrols. Indeed, Russia suggested that the
aforementioned proposal may establish the premises for a permanent NATO Black Sea
Fleet that infringes upon the provisions of the Montreux Convention and could constitute
a veritable casus belli. This paper follows the itinerary of the Romanian initiative,
analyzes the strategic and operational challenges that it is facing in the light of the
Montreux Convention and not ultimately, offers possible prospects for a permanent
NATO Black Sea Fleet.
Keywords: Annexation of Crimea, Black Sea, Montreux Convention, NATO,
Russia.
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