Author(s): Maria Cristina MURARU
Publication name: Romanian Intelligence Studies Review
Publisher name: Mihai Viteazul National Intelligence Academy
Publication type: Journal article
Publication date: June 30, 2015
Pagination:
Issue/ Volume: 13/2015
DOI:
Abstract:
Most intelligence practitioners share the same experience when it comes to
forecast and prognosis: the fact that, despite theoretical methods seem to offer great
results on paper, when these are put into practice, expectations are rarely met. Given
that quantitative methods do not take into account the subjective nature of phenomena
and qualitative methods often include cognitive biases, we took a different approach.
The case study I will further present is based on the application of the relevance tree, a
graph-like method used by both sociology and cybernetics, as a complex combination
between qualitative and quantitative methodologies.
Keywords: forecast, prognosis, OSINT, relevance tree, energy security.
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