Author(s): Michael ANDREGG
Publication name: Romanian Intelligence Studies Review
Publisher name: Mihai Viteazul National Intelligence Academy
Publication type: Journal article
Publication date: December 31, 2018
Pagination:
Issue/ Volume: 19-20/2018
DOI:
Abstract
Promoting constructive relations between academics and intelligence
practitioners in the US is a perennial challenge. Many centripetal forces drive us apart.
This challenge will be illustrated by reference to four of the most important ultimate
causes of wars and crises that all civilizations face today. Those long-term causes of
conflict are: 1) Population Pressure; 2) Corruptions of Governance; 3) Militant Religion,
and 4) Authoritarian Law.
That conclusion followed review of over 400 relevant books, structured
interviews with over 100 long-term (>20 years’ service) accomplished, military,
intelligence and diplomatic personnel, and a similar number of long-term, accomplished
peace advocates. This resulted in a book that won our National Peace Writing Award in
1999. (Andregg, 1997, 1999, 2001) The concept of a ‘developing global crisis’ (DGC) that
underlies more proximate (more visible, & often less controversial) causes of wars has
been presented at many military and intelligence colleges since then, where officers often
struggle with the differences between strategic and tactical intelligence. Very few people
want to get into unending wars, but militaries lean towards tactics. We reply that
medicine teaches us that to cure grave problems one must identify ultimate causes, not
deal just with symptoms.
Population Pressure is an ultimate (strategic) cause of wars well illustrated by
contemporary Syria, by displacement of Native peoples in North and South America by
European immigrants, and by many other examples. However, no US politician speaks
about this openly due partly to opposition from organized religious groups. So our
military is now trapped in wars that never end in places with high birth rates and
endemic violence like Afghanistan and Iraq. Many try to promote “moderate” (non-
violent) forms of Islam there. But our partners are often assassinated by terrorists who
reject modernity, and who see collaboration with foreign occupiers as treason.
Corruptions of Governance obstruct solutions to big problems everywhere.
Academics are well informed about those, which makes us irritating. Intelligence
professionals are usually employed by governments, as are policy makers, which make
criticizing governments difficult for them. So academic critics of policy are often seen as
nags or worse, and the scholars are frustrated by being ignored or even actively opposed
by bureaucracies that resist change fiercely.
Militant Religion and Authoritarian Law interact synergistically, which
complicates everything. This combination drives terrorist enthusiasm for violent
“solutions” to the many problems they seek to overcome by ruling the entire world. Thus,
“Caliphate” has become a label for militant, religious authoritarianism. I will tie each of
these factors to implications for both practitioners and policy makers, despite their long-
term and very problematic political implications.
Keywords: causes of wars, intelligence practitioners, academics, and policy
makers.
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