Author(s): Maria Cristina MURARU
Publication name: Romanian Intelligence Studies Review
Publisher name: Mihai Viteazul National Intelligence Academy
Publication type: Journal article
Publication date: June 30, 2015
Pagination:
Issue/ Volume: 13/2015
DOI:
Abstract:
Most of the intelligence practitioners share the same experience when it comes
to forecast and prognosis: despite on paper theoretical methods seem to offer great
results, when put into practice, the expectations are rarely met. Given the fact that
quantitative methods do not take into account the subjective nature of phenomena and
that the qualitative often include cognitive biases, we took on a different approach.
The case study I will further present is based on the application of the relevance
tree, a graph-like method used by both sociology and cybernetics, as a complex
combination between the qualitative and the quantitative methodologies.
Keywords: forecast, prognosis, OSINT, relevance tree, energy security
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